Free printable probability chart
Grades 4–8Impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely and certain — the words, the fractions and the scale that connects them. Print it for the wall, or change what is in the bag below and draw from it a hundred times.
Tap the chart to open it at full size
Change the bag, watch the chances move
Add and remove counters and every probability updates as a fraction, a percent and a word. The dots on the scale show where each color sits between impossible at 0 and certain at 1.
The words are only labels for parts of that line, which is the thing worth showing rather than telling. Take every counter of one color out and it drops to 0 and becomes impossible; make it the only color left and it goes to 1 and becomes certain.
Then press draw a hundred times. The results land near the percentages without matching them, and that gap is the whole distinction between theoretical probability — what should happen — and experimental probability — what actually did. Press it a few times and watch the numbers wobble.
| Color | As a fraction | As a percent | In words | How many |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | 3/4 | 75% | likely | 3 |
| Blue | 1/4 | 25% | unlikely | 1 |
| Green | 0 | 0% | impossible | 0 |
- In the bag
- 4 counters
- Last 100 draws
- Press draw to try it
The dots on the scale show where each color sits between impossible and certain.
How to use this probability chart at home
Start with the words and real events, not fractions. Will the sun rise tomorrow? Certain. Will it snow in July? Depends where you live, which is a good conversation. Sorting everyday events onto the scale builds the intuition that the numbers later have to agree with.
Then count outcomes with actual objects. Counters in a bag, a die, a coin. The step from I think red is likely to the probability of red is three quarters is the whole topic, and it happens when a child starts counting rather than guessing.
Then try it and be disappointed. Predict 50 heads in 100 flips, do it, get 43. That gap is not a mistake and children need to meet it early, because a lot of later confusion comes from expecting probability to be a promise.
Probability is a fraction of outcomes
Count what you want, count everything possible, write one over the other. That is the whole method, and it works for counters, dice, spinners and cards alike.
The condition people skip is that the outcomes have to be equally likely. Six faces on a fair die each have a probability of one sixth. A weighted die does not, and neither does a spinner with sections of different sizes — which is why questions specify fair so insistently.
It also explains why the answer can never exceed 1. The number you want is always part of the total, so the fraction is always at most the whole. An answer above 1 means the total was counted wrong.
What should happen and what does
Theoretical probability says a fair coin gives heads half the time. Experimental probability is what you got when you flipped it: 43 out of 100, or 7 out of 10, or five heads in a row.
Children often read a run of five heads as evidence the coin is broken, or as a reason the next flip is more likely to be tails. Neither is true. The coin has no memory, and the sixth flip is still an even chance.
What does happen is that the numbers settle down as you do more trials. Ten flips can easily land 7–3; a thousand rarely strays far from half. Pressing the draw button above repeatedly makes that visible, and it is a much better use of five minutes than another worksheet.
Where probability usually goes wrong
Believing a run changes what comes next. Five heads does not make tails due. This one is so common it has a name — the gambler's fallacy — and it is worth naming for a child.
Counting the wrong total. Using the number of colors rather than the number of counters, so a bag with three red and one blue gives a half instead of three quarters.
Assuming outcomes are equally likely when they are not. Two coins can land two heads, two tails, or one of each — but one of each is twice as likely, because it can happen two ways.
Expecting the experiment to match the theory exactly. It almost never does, and treating that as failure misses the point of doing the experiment at all.
After the chart goes up
A chart explains the idea but gives a child nothing to do. These do the rest.
- statistics at Mathify Kids — every topic in this area, sorted by grade.
- mean median mode range worksheets — printable practice.
- comparing fractions worksheets — the next step once this is solid.
- finding the percent worksheets — more practice in the same area.
Everything at this level: Grade 4 math · Grade 5 math · Grade 6 math · Grade 7 math · Grade 8 math
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Questions parents ask
What is probability?
How likely something is to happen, measured on a scale from 0 to 1. Zero means impossible, one means certain, and everything else sits in between. It can be written as a fraction, a decimal or a percent — a half, 0.5 and 50% all say the same thing.
How do you work out a probability?
Count the outcomes you want, then count all the outcomes possible, and write the first over the second. With three red counters in a bag of four, the probability of red is 3/4. This only works when every outcome is equally likely, which is why fair dice and well-shuffled cards turn up so often in questions.
What does an even chance mean?
A probability of one half — the thing is just as likely to happen as not. Flipping a fair coin is the standard example. On the scale it sits exactly in the middle, which is why the halfway mark is labeled.
What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?
Theoretical is what should happen based on counting outcomes. Experimental is what actually happened when you tried it. Flip a coin 100 times and you will rarely get exactly 50 heads, and that is not a sign anything is wrong — it is how randomness behaves.
Can a probability be more than 1?
No. One means certain, and nothing can be more certain than certain. If a calculation gives an answer above 1 or below 0, something has gone wrong — usually the total number of outcomes was counted incorrectly.
What grade is this probability chart for?
Grades 4 to 8. The vocabulary — likely, unlikely, certain, impossible — usually arrives around Grade 3 or 4, probability as a fraction in Grade 5 or 6, and comparing theoretical with experimental results by Grades 7 and 8.
Is this probability chart free to print?
Yes. Open it full size and print as many copies as you need for home or a classroom, with no account and no watermark. Reselling it or re-hosting the file elsewhere is not allowed — link to this page instead.